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Dangerous thresholds [electronic resource] : managing escalation in the 21st century / Forrest E. Morgan ... [et al.].

Contributor(s): Morgan, Forrest E | Project Air Force (U.S.) | United States. Air Force.
Material type: TextTextSeries: Rand Corporation monograph series: Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND Project Air Force, 2008Description: 1 online resource (xxvii, 245 p.) : ill., maps.ISBN: 9780833046369 (electronic bk.); 0833046365 (electronic bk.).Subject(s): Escalation (Military science) | Conflict management | Security, International | World politics -- 21st century | TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING -- Military Science | HISTORY -- Military -- OtherGenre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: Dangerous thresholds.DDC classification: 355.02 Online resources: EBSCOhost
Contents:
The nature of escalation -- China's thinking on escalation: evidence from Chinese military writings -- Regional nuclear powers -- Escalation in irregular warfare -- Managing escalation in a complex world --
Review: "Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition. When such competition entails military confrontation or war, the pressure to escalate can become intense due to the potential cost of losing contests of deadly force. Cold War-era thinking about escalation focused on the dynamics of bipolar, superpower confrontation and strategies to control it. Today's security environment, however, demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats involving not only longstanding nuclear powers, but also new, lesser nuclear powers and irregular adversaries, such as insurgent groups and terrorists. This examination of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global jihad. It reveals that, to manage the risks of escalatory chain reactions in future conflicts, military and political leaders will need to understand and dampen the mechanisms of deliberate, accidental, and inadvertent escalation. Informing the analysis are the results of two modified Delphi exercises, which focused on a potential conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan and a potential conflict between states and nonstate actors in the event of a collapse of Pakistan's government."--Jacket.
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"MG-614-AF"--P. [4] of cover.

"Prepared for the United States Air Force."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 225-245).

Description based on print version record.

Ch. 1. Introduction -- Ch. 2. The nature of escalation -- Ch. 3. China's thinking on escalation: evidence from Chinese military writings -- Ch. 4. Regional nuclear powers -- Ch. 5. Escalation in irregular warfare -- Ch. 6. Managing escalation in a complex world -- App. A. China, force, and escalation: continuities between historical behavior and contemporary writings -- App. B. Case studies of escalation in stability operations -- App. C. Modified method for Delphi analyses.

"Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition. When such competition entails military confrontation or war, the pressure to escalate can become intense due to the potential cost of losing contests of deadly force. Cold War-era thinking about escalation focused on the dynamics of bipolar, superpower confrontation and strategies to control it. Today's security environment, however, demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats involving not only longstanding nuclear powers, but also new, lesser nuclear powers and irregular adversaries, such as insurgent groups and terrorists. This examination of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global jihad. It reveals that, to manage the risks of escalatory chain reactions in future conflicts, military and political leaders will need to understand and dampen the mechanisms of deliberate, accidental, and inadvertent escalation. Informing the analysis are the results of two modified Delphi exercises, which focused on a potential conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan and a potential conflict between states and nonstate actors in the event of a collapse of Pakistan's government."--Jacket.

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Dangerous thresholds ©2008
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