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Earthquakes : models, statistics, testable forecasts / Yan Y. Kagan.

By: Material type: TextTextSeries: Statistical physics of fracture and breakdownPublication details: New Jersey : John Wiley, 2014.Description: xviii, 283 p. ; illustrations (some color), tables, mapsISBN:
  • 9781118637920 (hardback)
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 551.220112 23 K11
Contents:
Part I Models: 1. Motivation: Earthquake science challenges-- 2. Seismolgical background-- 3. Stochastic processes and earthquake occurrence models-- Part II Statistics: 4. Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: Conseque3nce of branching process-- 5. Earthquake size distribution-- 6. Temporal earthquake distribution-- 7. Earthquake location distribution-- 8. Focal mechanism orientation and source complexity-- Part III testable forecasts: 9. Global earthquake patterns-- 10. Long and short-term earthquake forecasting-- 11. Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams-- 12. Future prospects and problems-- References-- Index.
Summary: "The proposed book is the first comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of earthquake occurrence. Models based on the theory of the stochastic multidimensional point processes are employed to approximate the earthquake occurrence pattern and evaluate its parameters. The Author shows that most of these parameters have universal values. These results help explain the classical earthquake distributions: Omori's law and the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The Author derives a new negative-binomial distribution for earthquake numbers, instead of the Poisson distribution, and then determines a fractal correlation dimension for spatial distributions of earthquake hypocenters. The book also investigates the disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms and shows that it follows the rotational Cauchy distribution. These statistical and mathematical advances make it possible to produce quantitative forecasts of earthquake occurrence. In these forecasts earthquake rate in time, space, and focal mechanism orientation is evaluated"--Summary: "Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation"--
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Includes bibliographical references and index.

Part I Models:
1. Motivation: Earthquake science challenges--
2. Seismolgical background--
3. Stochastic processes and earthquake occurrence models--

Part II Statistics:
4. Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: Conseque3nce of branching process--
5. Earthquake size distribution--
6. Temporal earthquake distribution--
7. Earthquake location distribution--
8. Focal mechanism orientation and source complexity--

Part III testable forecasts:
9. Global earthquake patterns--
10. Long and short-term earthquake forecasting--
11. Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams--
12. Future prospects and problems--

References--
Index.

"The proposed book is the first comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of earthquake occurrence. Models based on the theory of the stochastic multidimensional point processes are employed to approximate the earthquake occurrence pattern and evaluate its parameters. The Author shows that most of these parameters have universal values. These results help explain the classical earthquake distributions: Omori's law and the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The Author derives a new negative-binomial distribution for earthquake numbers, instead of the Poisson distribution, and then determines a fractal correlation dimension for spatial distributions of earthquake hypocenters. The book also investigates the disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms and shows that it follows the rotational Cauchy distribution. These statistical and mathematical advances make it possible to produce quantitative forecasts of earthquake occurrence. In these forecasts earthquake rate in time, space, and focal mechanism orientation is evaluated"--

"Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation"--

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